Here are the numbers from my August 5, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio
Aug 5, 2010     3,475               608      17.49%       28.20%
Jul 7, 2010       3,409               582      17.07%       28.83%
Jun 4, 2010      3,310               830      25.08%       28.62%
May 7, 2010     3,301            1,040      31.51%       28.15%
Apr, 7, 2010    3,344               830      24.82%       22.44%                (keep in mind that this is useful
Mar 7, 2010     3,089               666      21.56%       19.38%                in watching trends emerge and
Feb 6, 2010     2,931               554      18.90%       16.37%                change in the market)
Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%

In reviewing the numbers appears the market has lost some strength and activity in the last two months.  Showing activity has been lower lately for me and for other agents as well.  But, there are still people looking at homes and making purchase choices.  They are doing this because of changes in their life that require moving.  These changes are related to job changes, families growing or shrinking, and other motivations.  The people that are buying are happy with the interest rates they are finding in the market.  The lower rates help keep their monthly payments lower or enables them to purchase more home.  It may be less active right now than other years, but the hot summer will soon be over, children will be back to school, and summer vacations will be memories.

 Recently, I learned of some industries seeing a surge in orders, increasing hours that employees are working, and showing profitability in their financial reports.  This is good news for our economy and for employment.  Someone said that “in every expansion of the economy are the seeds for a contraction, and in every contraction are the seeds for an expansion.” 

We have a chart prepared by our Homesale Lending people that illustrates interest rate levels over the past almost 40 years.  With the low levels of rates and the quantity of available homes, now is a great time to buy.  The currently low rates help both buyers and sellers accomplish their objectives of finding a different home.    To view the chart, please click on this link: history repeat itself - interest rates.pdf

Many of us in the Real Estate industry believe that rates will not continue to stay at these low levels indefinitely, and when rates rise they will not likely go back down to the current levels anytime soon.  What that indicates for the environment in the real estate market is not clear to me, but if it is harder for buyers to purchase, that makes it harder for sellers to sell.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.        By the way, I’m never too busy to take great care of clients you refer to me.

Prepared by:
J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Pointe Boulevard
Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100
http://www.msollenberger.com
msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Here are the numbers from my July 7, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio
Jul 7, 2010       3,409               582      17.07%       28.83%
Jun 4, 2010      3,310               830      25.08%       28.62%
May 7, 2010     3,301            1,040      31.51%       28.15%
Apr, 7, 2010    3,344               830      24.82%       22.44%                (keep in mind that this is useful
Mar 7, 2010     3,089               666      21.56%       19.38%                in watching trends emerge and
Feb 6, 2010     2,931               554      18.90%       16.37%                change in the market)
Jan 7, 2010     2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%

The July 2010 issue of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors® publication House Calls reports that Pending Home sales in May 2010 dropped to 280 from 461 a year ago- a 39.2 percent decrease.  The Days on Market is also creeping down slightly.   House Calls also reports that 60% of the homes and condos sold in May were on the market for 60 days or fewer. 

The following table illustrates the trend for the number of properties going under agreement over the last 6 months and compares that to the same period in 2009.

(Number of listings that went UA in the Lancaster County FLEX MLS.)

Month  2009    2010    % change
Jan       277      310      +11.9%
Feb      309      339      +9.7%
Mar      422      518      +22.7%
Apr      477      648      +35.8%
May      461      284      -38.4%
Jun       459      327      -28.7%

This table shows a 38.4% decrease in number of properties going under agreement in May 2010 and a 28.7% decrease for June 2010.  This is likely due to the ending of the $8,000 tax credit for purchases on or before April 30, 2010.  With this information, it appears that we will see a reduction in the number of settlements in July and August 2010.

Interest rates are near historical lows and there is a great selection of homes on the market, making now a great time for buyers to purchase a home. (Selling a home is still better in Lancaster County than you might think considering all of the bad national news.)  Waiting and purchasing after interest rates increase will increase the monthly payment buyers will need to pay each month, and the accumulation of that extra amount over the life of the mortgage can add up to a significant amount.  Current rates can be below 5% in some situations.  Check with Doug Shand at my office, or see http://www.homesalelending.com/ for more information.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.        By the way, I’m never too busy to take great care of clients you refer to me.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Pointe Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100
Website:  http://www.msollenberger.com/  
Email:      msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Here are the numbers from my June 4, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
              Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio
Jun 4, 2010      3,310               830      25.08%       28.62%
May 7, 2010     3,301            1,040      31.51%       28.15%
Apr, 7, 2010    3,344               830      24.82%       22.44%                (keep in mind that this is useful
Mar 7, 2010     3,089               666      21.56%       19.38%                in watching trends emerge and
Feb 6, 2010     2,931               554      18.90%       16.37%                change in the market)
Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%

In the June 2010 issue of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors® publication House Calls it is reported that Pending Home sales in April 2010 rose to 648 from 484 a year ago- a 33.9 percent increase.  The March 2010 sales were 24% higher than March 2009.  The UA/A ratio moving from 31.51% in May 2010 to 25.08% in June 2010 points to a reversal in the trend.

Well, it seems the tax credit expiring April 30 has taken away the urgency that buyers may have felt, things got quieter in the market.  You can see from the following table that leading up to that date there was a significant increase in the number of homes going UA this year over last year.  These figures show an even more significant decline in the number of homes going under agreement in May 2010.

The following table illustrates the trend over the last 5 months and compares that to the same period in 2009.
(Number of listings that went UA in the Lancaster County FLEX MLS.)

Month  2009    2010    % change
Jan       277      310      +11.9%
Feb      309      339      +9.7%
Mar      422      518      +22.7%
Apr      477      648      +35.8%
May     461      284      -38.4%

This table shows a 38.4% decrease in number of properties going under agreement in May 2010.  With that it appears that we will see a reduction in the number of settlements in July and August 2010.  You may see news reports highlighting the increase in sales recently.  That is likely based on settled units.  It remains to be seen how the market will be in the near future.

Interest rates are near historical lows and there is a great selection of homes on the market, making now a great time for buyers to purchase a home.  Waiting and purchasing after interest rates increase will increase the monthly payment buyers will need to pay each month, and the accumulation of that extra amount over the life of the mortgage can add up to a significant amount.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.        By the way, I’m never too busy to take great care of clients you refer to me.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Pointe Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed
in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100
My website:  www.msollenberger.com
My email: msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed in PA  - AB066078

Here are the numbers from my May 7, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

——-Active Listings- - -UA Listings- - - - Ratio- - - -Prior year Ratio
5/7/10- - -3,301 - - - - -1,040- - - - - - 31.51%- - - - - - 28.15% 
4/7/10- - -3,344 - - - - - - 830- - - - - - 24.82%- - - - - - 22.44% 
3/7/10- - -3,089 - - - - - - 666- - - - - - 21.56%- - - - - - 19.38% 
2/6/10- - -2,931 - - - - - - 554- - - - - - 18.90%- - - - - - 16.37% 
1/710- - - 2,772 - - - - - - 413- - - - - - 14.89%- - - - - - 16.05% 
12/7/09- -2,873 - - - - - - 439- - - - - - 15.28%- - - - - - 18.19% 
11/4/09- -2,907 - - - - - - 641- - - - - - 22.05%- - - - - - 20.43% 

(keep in mind that this is useful in watching trends emerge and change in the market)

With everything going on I did not get to prepare and distribute an April 2010 Market Report.  In 2009 things were much slower, so I am pleased with the higher level of activity in 2010.

Looking at the month to month trends last year and this year we see a stronger improvement in the UA/A ratio from April to May 2010 than we did in 2009.  Some of that may be due to the tax credit incentive that expired on April 30, 2010.  It will be interesting to see what happens in May 2010 now that the credit has expired.

In studying the above table, we can observe that several monthly ratios are stronger than those months were last year.  Some were weaker than the prior year, but overall since September 2009 we’ve enjoyed a more robust market than the prior year.  There are still concerns in the economy about unemployment and other issues, but they are easing a bit in some ways.  The fiscal uncertainty in the European economy is currently weighing on world financial markets.  Greece, Spain and other countries are dealing with significant challenges in their financial systems, and the implications of that are felt throughout the world.
 
The breakdown of the ratio for each of the price ranges is:
——————–March 2010 Ratio—May 2010 Ratio
Up to - - - - -$50k- -30.59%- - - - 34.29%
$50K- -to- -$100K- -25.00%- - - - 39.02%
$100K-to- -$150K- -34.98%- - - - 52.01%
$150K-to- -$200K- -28.65%- - - - 40.20%
$200K-to- -$250K- -21.68%- - - - 31.12%
$250K-to- -$300K- -15.20%- - - - 20.33%
$300K-to- -$400K- - -7.65%- - - -17.36%
$400K-to- -$500K- - -7.75%- - - -16.18%
$500K-and above- - -4.62%- - - - -5.02%

With these numbers we can see again that strength lies mostly in the ranges from $100,000 to $250,000.  The higher price range properties have improved significantly.  For the ratios in the $300,000 to $500,000 ranges to change this much there have been many that went under agreement since March.

In the May 2010 issue of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors® publication House Calls it is reported that Pending Home sales rose to 522 from 422 a year ago- a 24.2 percent increase.  House Calls also reports that the number of new listings increased over the prior year, and settled homes also increased 10.1% over the prior year for the March period.

Interest rates are still low which creates a favorable environment for buyers, thereby assisting sellers.  The government has stopped buying mortgage backed securities.  They were doing that to support the mortgage market liquidity, but stopped recently to let them market act more naturally.  Even so, we have not seen a significant increase in interest rates.  When the economy gets more active again, we will likely see rates move higher.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

By the way, I’m never to busy to take care of clients you refer to me.

Thank You,

Merle Sollenberger

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Things are happening!  Over the weekend the weather was beautiful, and Monday I received several calls from buyers that I had not heard from for a while.  Other agents are seeing activity as well.Here are the numbers from my March 7, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio

Mar 7, 2010     3,089               666      21.56%       19.38%
Feb 6, 2010     2,931               554      18.90%       16.37%                (keep in mind that this is useful
Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%                in watching trends emerge and
Dec 7, 2009     2,873               439      15.28%       18.19%                change in the market)
Nov 4, 2009     2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%

In studying the above table, we can observe that February 2010 and March 2010 ratios are stronger than those months were last year.  December 2009 and January 2010 were weaker than the prior year, but overall since September 2009 we’ve enjoyed a more robust market than the prior year.  There are still concerns in the economy about unemployment and other issues, but they are easing a bit and it seems like the overall picture is improving.  People are moving because something is changing in their life, and moving to a different home is appropriate.  They are doing this because of their needs, not because of how the market is.

The breakdown of the ratio for each of the price ranges is:
                                                       # Active             # UA      Ratio
                        Up to   $50,000            85                   26        30.59%
$50,001           to         $100,000         244                  61        25.00%
$100,001         to         $150,000         426                  149      34.98%
$150,001         to         $200,000         747                  214      28.65%
$200,001         to         $250,000         489                  106      21.68%
$250,001         to         $300,000         421                  64        15.20%
$300,001         to         $400,000         353                  27        7.65%
$400,001         to         $500,000         129                  10        7.75%
$500,001         and above                    195                  9          4.62%

With these numbers we can see that strength lies mostly in the ranges from $100,000 to $250,000.  The higher price range properties are languishing on the market longer.

The Lancaster County Association of Realtors® publication House Calls reports in the March 2010 issue that pending home sales rose to 315 in January 2010, a 12.9% increase over the 279 in January 2009.  House Calls also reports that the number of new listings increased 25.9%, and settled homes were up 4.2% over January 2009.  Together these numbers point to an improvement in the environment for people selling a home.  Interest rates are still low which creates a favorable environment for buyers.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

By the way, I’m never to busy to take care of clients you refer to me.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Here are the numbers from my February 6, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio
Feb 6, 2010      2,931               554      18.90%       16.37%
Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%                (keep in mind that this is useful
Dec 7, 2009     2,873               439      15.28%       18.19%                in watching trends emerge and
Nov 4, 2009     2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%                change in the market)
Oct 6, 2009      2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%
Sep 8, 2009      2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%
The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the February 2010 issue that Government Housing Incentives help spur the Market.  This is referring to the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and the $6,500 seller/buyer tax credit.  These credits were extended to include sales that go under agreement before April 30, 2010 and settle before July 1, 2010.House Calls also reports in the February 2010 issue that home sales for 2009 were 1.8 percent lower in 2009 than they were in 2008, but up 23.8% in the 4th quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008.  House Calls also reports that the amount of time that homes are on the market is shortening, especially late in 2009.

The following graph illustrates how the UA/A ratio for the various price ranges changed from 2001 through 2010. 

This is useful in seeing how the ratios increased until 2005, and declined since then.  We can not tell how the path will look in the next 10 years, but I have optimism that it will improve gradually as foreclosed properties get sold and as employment improves.

We are seeing much more activity in the market recently.  Buyers are looking at homes and preparing offers that sellers are accepting.  I recently had some sellers get multiple offers on their home, and they were pleased with the result.  The snow storms we had recently affected buyer activity somewhat, but soon the snow will stop falling and Spring will arrive with a flurry of buyer and seller activity as people take advantage of the tax credit.  If you haven’t heard about the $8,000 tax credit, please contact me and I’ll be happy to forward information about it to you.  If you are thinking of moving or know someone who is, the credit is a valuable part of the transaction.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

By the way, I’m never to busy to take care of clients you refer to me.

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group

150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Happy New Year!  I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and are looking forward to this year.  The week before Christmas turned out to be very busy for me, and we enjoyed helping three households select homes and enter agreements to buy them, which helped two households and a builder be able to move forward with their plans.Here are the numbers from my January 7, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio

Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%

Dec 7, 2009     2,873               439      15.28%       18.19%

Nov 4, 2009    2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%

Oct 6, 2009      2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%

Sep 8, 2009     2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%

Jul 7, 2009       2,761               796      28.83%       29.17%

May 7, 2009      2,845             801         28.15%       34.95%

Mar 7, 2009       2,812             545         19.38%       31.00%

Jan 3, 2009        2,660             427         16.05%       21.29%

Here is a list of the number of Active Listings, Under Agreement listings, the ratio of the two, and the date I reviewed the MLS information.  This covers the years from 2001 through 2010.  The Approximate # of Months Supply figure simply takes the number of active listings and divides it by the number under agreement.  A more precise calculation would use the actual number of homes that went under agreement in a given period of time, but this method gives a similar picture of the market.

      Date           # Active       # UA               Ratio      Approx. # Months Supply

01/11/2001

2333

539

23.10%

4.3

01/07/2002

1964

676

34.42%

2.9

01/04/2003

2235

1087

48.64%

2.1

01/07/2004

1485

1144

77.04%

1.3

01/19/2005

1430

1219

85.24%

1.2

01/09/2006

1489

706

47.41%

2.1

01/08/2007

2041

678

33.22%

3.0

01/05/2008

2273

484

21.29%

4.7

01/03/2009

2660

427

16.05%

6.2

01/07/2010

2772

413

14.90%

6.7

Over the years you can see the market strengthening from 2001 until 2005, and then begin to weaken substantially.  A year ago I predicted that we hit bottom in terms of activity, and realize now that wasn’t correct.  (A hazard of making such predictions)  This year again I see positive things in the market and expect improvement over 2009 in measurements such as number of homes sold and a shortening of time on the market.  The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the December 2009 issue that the National Association of Realtors® forecasts 2010 home sales are expected to be 15 percent over 2009.  Time will tell if this is correct or not, but overall I see it as a good time to purchase a home.

House Calls also reports in the January 2010 issue that home sales for the month of November 2009 were 49.8 percent higher than November 2008.  This is the fourth consecutive month that we saw more homes sold than the same period in the prior year.  House Calls also reports that 39.2 percent of homes sold in a month or less, compared to 24.7 percent in November 2008, indicating that the aamount of time homes are on the market is shortening. 

Once again, this time of year tends to have fewer active buyers and sellers, but those who are active are generally feeling a strong need to move for some reason or another.  There is talk of interest rates heading up in the Spring due to the Federal Reserve changing strategy and focus, in an attempt to avoid inflation.  Astute buyers are trying to lock in ahead of that.

If you haven’t heard about the $8,000 tax credit, please contact me and I’ll be happy to forward information about it to you.

On January 7 we resumed operations at the Prudential Homesale Services Group Kiosk at Park City in the Boscov mall.  In the three shifts I’ve been there since then the flow of people stopping to talk has been good.  There are people wanting to move.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Happy holidays!  Christmas is almost here and people are busy getting ready.  I hope you have a wonderful holiday season.

This time of year tends to have fewer active buyers and sellers, but those who are active are generally feeling the need to move for some reason or another.  There is talk of interest rates heading up in the Spring due to the Federal Reserve changing strategy and focus, in an attempt to avoid inflation.  Astute buyers are trying to lock in ahead of that.

The $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit has been extended, and, there is now also a $6,500 credit for people selling a home and buying another!  People thinking of buying a home really should be aware of this and carefully consider the impact of not acting to take advantage of this.  To take advantage of this, you need to purchase a house prior to the end of April 2010.  That means buyers need to be under agreement on a property before April 30, 2010, and settle on that property on or before June 30, 2010.

Here are the numbers from my December 7, 2009 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio
Dec 7, 2009     2,873               439      15.28%       18.19%
Nov 4, 2009     2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%
Oct 6, 2009      2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%
Sep 8, 2009     2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%
Jul 7, 2009       2,761               796      28.83%       29.17%
May 7, 2009     2,845               801      28.15%       34.95%
Mar 7, 2009     2,812               545      19.38%       31.00%
Jan 3, 2009      2,660              427      16.05%       21.29%

We started 2009 weaker than corresponding months in 2008, stronger in September, October and November, but weakness returned in December.  The First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit had some impact on that, possibly nudging buyers that were planning to move in early 2010 to act sooner and purchase a home before the original deadline of November 30, 2009.

The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the December 2009 issue that settled units, where the home has transferred ownership, was up 24.2% in October 2009 over October 2008.  Pending home sales for October 2009 have increased over 2008 by 26.0%.  We have seen a significant change in the market compared to 2008.  House Calls also reports that the National Association of Realtors® forecasts 2010 home sales are expected to be 15 percent over 2009.

Over the last few months there were several homeowners that I spoke with that are facing challenges.  Most are dealing with job losses or health issues that led them to being unable to make their mortgage payments.  In viewing homes, there are a larger percentage that are vacant than I remember seeing before.

Sellers currently face stiff competition from other sellers and from builders selling new homes.  Buyers have many homes to choose from and can use guidance in making their selection.  With all of the challenges home buyers and sellers can be faced with in the market, doesn’t it make sense to use the services of a Realtor® that has helped many people through the buying and selling process over the last decade?

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

Happy Holidays! 

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group

150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

p.s. As we approach the celebration of a new year, and become involved in making resolutions and plans for 2010, may you have hope and excitement as you think about your future.

The $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit has been extended, and, there is now also a $6,500 credit for people selling a home and buying another!  People thinking of buying a home really should be aware of this and carefully consider the impact of not acting to take advantage of this.  To take advantage of this, you need to purchase a house prior to the end of April 2010.  That means buyers need to be under agreement on a property before April 30, 2010, and settle on that property on or before June 30, 2010.

Here are the numbers from my November 4, 2009 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio

Nov 4, 2009    2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%

Oct 6, 2009      2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%

Sep 8, 2009     2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%

Jul 7, 2009       2,761               796      28.83%       29.17%

May 7, 2009      2,845             801         28.15%       34.95%

Mar 7, 2009       2,812             545         19.38%       31.00%

Jan 3, 2009        2,660             427         16.05%       21.29%

Price ranges up to $250,000 again show the most strength in activity and ratio.  Above $250,000 there is much less activity and the average time on market is significantly longer.  The Market Absorption as reported in The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, indicates that in price ranges up to $300,000 the “Months Supply” maximum is 7.3, whereas $300,000 to $400,000 is 15.2 and $400,000 and up is 20.7.  That indicates that someone selling a home in the $400,000 and up price range may need to be prepared for possibly nearly two years of time on the market.

The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the November 2009 issue that settled units, where the home has transferred ownership, was up 22.4% in September 2009 over September 2008.  Pending home sales for September 2009 have increased over 2008 by 26.8%.  The pending home sales increase again points to future months of increased settled units, possibly in October, November, and December.

Our office has been seeing nice sales numbers again this month.  September and October 2009 were much improved over September and October 2008, but with the $8,000 tax credit scheduled to end in November, things have quieted somewhat.

Things have been interesting lately.  Recently there were two transactions where my buyers had entered into an Agreements of Sale on the homes, but unusual issues came up and both agreements ended up being released instead of settling.  This is unusual in typical market environments, but not so much in the current environment.  Buyers and Sellers both take on some risk when they enter an Agreement of Sale to sell or buy a home.  Even knowing that risks exist doesn’t eliminate the frustration when plans get changed.

Tuesday I talked to someone that is selling their home without a Realtor®.  He told me he had his home sold twice, but when it came to getting the agreement in writing, the buyers backed out.  One even bought a house on the street next to his home.  He also mentioned that someone from out of town had called him, and when he talks to them next he will make an offer they can’t refuse.  It appears he may be giving away any commission savings he hoped to enjoy by not using a Realtor®.

Also, someone told me about a recent auction on a house, and that prior to the auction the auctioneer approached a neighbor that was attending the sale and invited him to make a bid on the property just to get the bidding started.  When the auction started, the neighbor did that and no one else bid any higher, for a long time.  Ultimately the bidding went higher after several recesses, but the sellers did not accept the maximum bid after all of that.  It appears to me that buyers tend to go to auctions and FSBO’s expecting or hoping for a bargain.

With all of the challenges home buyers and sellers can be faced with in the market, doesn’t it make sense to use the services of a Realtor® that has helped many people through the buying and selling process over the last decade?

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group

150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100     http://www.msollenberger.com/        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

Here are the numbers from my October 6, 2009 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio

Oct 6, 2009      2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%

Sep 8, 2009     2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%

Jul 7, 2009       2,761               796      28.83%       29.17%

May 7, 2009      2,845              801       28.15%       34.95%

Mar 7, 2009       2,812              545      19.38%       31.00%

Jan 3, 2009        2,660             427       16.05%       21.29%

Several of our Prudential Homesale Services Group offices saw very strong production in September.  The North Pointe office I work in was almost 37% above goal for the month in pending home sales.  Some of this may be due to the $8,000 tax credit, which is scheduled to end November 30, 2009.

Buyers and Sellers are both a bit uneasy now.  Buyers are uneasy due to wondering if they are buying at the right time, if prices will decline.  Sellers wonder if they should wait to sell until the market improves.  Sellers and Buyers anxiety also increases when inspection or appraisal issues arise, which happens frequently.  Several people selling homes expressed significant relief when they reached an agreement to sell.  Reaching that stage gives them the confidence that someone wants to buy the home in an environment with a lot of bad news and uncertainty.

The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the October 2009 issue that settled units, where the home has transferred ownership, was up 16.5% in August 2009 over August 2008.  Pending home sales for August 2009 have increased over 2008 by 30%.  The pending home sales increase again points to future months of increased settled units, possibly in September, October, and November.  House Calls reports that the $100,000 to $200,000 price range had the strongest performance.  This is likely due to the $8,000 tax credit currently offered buyers that haven’t owned a home in the last three years, since many will be buying their first home.

On September 25 I attended the Sheriff Sale at the Lancaster County Courthouse.  There were 133 properties on the list to be sold.  Many were continued until November 25, but 30 were sold.  Of the 30 sold, all but 4 or 5 were sold to the bank forcing the foreclosure.  The good news is that approximately 100 homes remained with the current owner who worked something out to prevent the foreclosure sale.  The remaining homes will likely be sold in the next few months by the mortgage company using a local Realtor®.  In July, there were over 150 homes on the Sheriff Sale list, so the 133 in September is a reduction of 11.3%.  In a time when there is a lot of national news coverage on foreclosures, this is information that illustrates how our area in Lancaster is insulated a bit when considering other areas of the country.

Time is almost gone on the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit!  People thinking of buying their first home really should be aware of this and carefully consider the impact of not acting to take advantage of this.  To take advantage of this, you need to purchase (and settle on) a house prior to the end of November 2009.  That means buyers need to be under agreement on a property before early to mid October.  With the increasing length of time the mortgage process may take, it may be challenging to get approval and settled before November 30, 2009.  There is a possibility the Tax Credit may be extended, but the Cash for Clunkers program was not extended, and the $8,000 Tax Credit may also not be extended.

Borrowing for a home loan increases in complexity and challenge.  Lenders are faced with increasing rules and regulations and are still learning to work within the context of the legislation.  Appraisal issues come up, but can be anticipated with a proper market analysis’s being done by both the listing agent and the buyers agent.  Buyers really need to get pre-approved to know how much they are qualified to purchase.  Simply using a calculator on the Internet is no longer enough to be confident.  Credit scores have become even more important that they were a year or two ago.  Lenders have increased the level that a credit score for a buyer must be to qualify.  Buyers that have been pre-qualified several months ago really should talk to their lender again to verify they continue to be qualified for what they are looking for.

A big Thank You to everyone who has recommended my service to someone they know.  I really appreciate the confidence that shows you have in me, and will do everything I can to continue to earn that confidence.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100

     http://www.msollenberger.com/
     msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

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