Here are the numbers from my May 6, 2011 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
Active Listings UA Listings Ratio Prior year Ratio
May 6, 2011 3,440 735 21.37% 31.51%
April 8, 2011 3,265 730 22.36% 24.82%
March 7, 2011 3,161 622 19.68% 21.56%
Feb 7, 2011 3,106 549 17.67% 18.90%
Jan 19, 2011 3,150 527 16.73% 14.89%
Nov 6, 2010 3,428 601 17.53% 22.05%
Sep 6, 2010 3,496 604 17.27% 26.80%
Jul 7, 2010 3,409 582 17.07% 28.83% (keep in mind that this is useful
May 7, 2010 3,301 1,040 31.51% 28.15% in watching trends emerge and
Mar 7, 2010 3,089 666 21.56% 19.38% change in the market)
Jan 7, 2010 2,772 413 14.89% 16.05%
The above table summarizes the ratios for the last two years, during which time there were some significant events.
Some of the events include:
The homebuyer tax credit is no longer available to most buyers.
1. Gasoline prices have jumped dramatically
2. We’ve seen natural disasters have a major impact on large groups of people
3. We’ve watched major political changes occur in Arab countries
4. There have been significant wage concessions agreed to by teachers unions
5. The budget challenges facing Federal, State, and local governments are significant
One major influence on housing was the home buyer’s tax credit. That credit began in 2009 and was extended into 2010 for homes purchased in the first quarter. It was helpful with $8,000 to first time buyers and $6,500 to people who sold a home and bought another. The ratio of under agreement homes to actively marketed homes went up significantly in the April 2010 through May 2010 time frame. That was due to the tax credit. Prior to that, the credit gave people incentive mostly in the May 2009 to October 2009 time period, but around November 2009 the credit was extended. After the time period for purchases passed, we saw a marked decline in activity, and then a gradual resumption of activity until early 2010 when we saw declines in activity again. Currently there is not a purchase tax credit available to most people who are purchasing a home. Home owners are still able to claim their mortgage interest as a deduction, but the purchase credits have been virtually eliminated. This affects the housing market because it affects buyer’s ability to purchase a home. If buyers find they have a reduced ability to purchase, sellers find they have less people interested in the home they are selling. It illustrates Supply and Demand principles.
Another factor that is influencing things is the unemployment rate. People who are insecure in their jobs tend to not make home purchase decisions, staying where they live now. There also may be a bit of thinking among buyers that prices are going to go down, so why not wait until they reach the bottom. Over the last few months there has been good economic and housing news, but it usually is mixed with some negative news, leaving people confused about their expectation of the future.
Overall, there are homes selling in our local market. People still have changes to their situations that require changes in their housing. When we think about it, isn’t that the best reason to buy or sell a house, when our situation calls for it. Otherwise we are using our homes as investments. Homes are an investment, but they are an investment with many more things to consider than just the financial aspects. The peace of mind of owning a home you can afford, one that you can take pride in and decorate to suit your tastes, and one that fits your family needs is a very special investment indeed.
The Financial Services Inquiry Commission Report that was published a few months ago. In reading it, it has been very interesting learning more about the practices of many participants in the housing, financing, and mortgage investment markets over the last 10 years. There were some very risky practices that many different participants engaged in, and now the reaction to that is in some ways almost as dramatic and unnecessary. However, in spite of that, people still have their housing needs change, and they look to move for appropriate reasons.
If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me. I’ll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate. By the way, I’m never too busy to take great care of clients you refer to me.
Prepared by: J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor ®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Pointe Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100
Website: http://www.msollenberger.com/
Email: msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed in PA
Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.
Comments (0)