Merle Sollenberger’s Blog

We see continued strengthening in the local real estate market in the last month.  The numbers from my May 6, 2008 search in the Lancaster County MLS indicate the following:

                        Active Listings   UA Listings    Ratio                 2007 Ratio       2001 Ratio

May 6, 2008                2,638               922        34.95%          48.47%            43.30%

April 6, 2008               2,523               808        32.03%          50.33%            38.11%

March 6, 2008             2,403               745        31.00%          50.76%            34.49%

February 2, 2008         2,340               576        24.62%          47.33%            28.60%

January 5, 2008           2,273               484        21.29%          33.22%            23.10%

In spite of the news we hear, the local market is strengthening a bit.  Looking back to 2001, we see that the ratios are not as strong now as they were then, but they are not significantly weaker.  Looking at the number of properties that went Under Agreement from March 15, 2008 through April 15, 2008, there were 1,089 indicated in the MLS.  During the prior year period there were 1,159 properties that went Under Agreement.  That represents a decrease of 6.04%.  Comparing that to the 17.80% decrease for the  January 15, 2008 through Feb 15, 2008 time period compared to the prior year, 6.04% is an improvement.  Earlier this year I suggested that the market may have bottomed out, and this information I believe confirms that.

The national economic news continues to include the word “recession”, but also includes the word “Inflation”.  Inflation treats homeowners well with increasing property values.  Employment information shows increased jobless claims, but employment is still high, with the unemployment rate being near the 5% rate that economists consider “full employment”.  Consumer confidence is reported to be the lowest in several years, probably due to the increase in gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil prices.  In October of 2000 gasoline was prices around $1.72 per gallon.  With gas at $3.65 per gallon now, consumers are spending a larger portion of their income on energy.  This will influence consumers to more carefully consider property location and that affect on their driving time, and they will be more eager to buy energy-efficient homes.

I’ll repeat here from last month:  however mortgage interest rates are still low, which helps buyers afford a higher price house.  Lower rates helps buyers, which also enables sellers to sell houses.  As I review the sales activity with other agents in my office it is clear that people are buying houses.  We are even seeing some multiple offer situations occasionally.  That is not as frequent as it was in 2004, but says something about the market.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®Prudential Homesale Services Group

We see continued strengthening in the local real estate market in the last month.  The numbers from my April 6, 2008 search in the Lancaster County MLS indicate the following:

                        Active Listings            Under-Agreement Listings     Ratio               2007 Ratio

April 6, 2008           2,523                           808                              32.03%            50.33%

March 6, 2008         2,403                           745                              31.00%            50.76%

February 2, 2008     2,340                           576                              24.62%            47.33%

January 5, 2008       2,273                           484                              21.29%            33.22%

From February 15, 2008 thru March 15, 2008 my search in the MLS indicates 969 homes went Under-Agreement.  During the same period a year ago there were 1,065 homes that went UA.  That indicates a reduction of just over 9.0% for agreements.  Earlier in 2008 the search indicated an 11.29% percent reduction.

The local news indicates home sales are down 29% for the first 3 months of the year compared to last year.  This is not surprising considering the lower level of properties under agreement, but again I believe that we have begun to see strengthening.  In the last couple weeks two of my listings have sold within one week, for prices that are not anywhere near what I consider to be indicative of a declining market.

Looking back a couple years we see that on May 4, 2004 the price range from $100,000 to $150,000 had a ratio of 298.32%, which means that for every house on the market there were almost three more in that price range that were already under agreement.  As of April 6, 2008 the ratio for that price range is 60.45%.  I picked that range to show the significance of the change in activity since then.  Other price ranges did not reach a level quite that high.  The $500,000 and above price range had the smallest variation over the time frame, with the minimum ratio of 2.56% and max of 30.19%, therefore did not see the wider swings in the market that the smaller price ranges did.  There were periods of time that few homes in that high-end range were under agreement.

The national economic news continues to be less than exciting, with employment information showing increased jobless claims.  Consumer confidence also is reported to be the lowest in several years.  In spite of this news, the housing market has been active.  (notice the delay in me posting this blog)

Mortgage interest rates are still low, which helps buyers afford a higher price house.  Lower rates helps buyers, which also enables sellers to sell houses.  As I review the sales activity with other agents in my office it is clear that people are buying houses.  We are even seeing some multiple offer situations occasionally.  That is not as frequent as it was in 2004, but says something about the market.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

Today it was announced that Coldwell Banker Homesale Services Group is no longer a franchise of Coldwell Banker, but has changed to be a franchise of Prudential, and is now known as Prudential Homesale Services Group.  This change is primarily in response to changing national real estate market conditions and the strengths that Prudential offers to meet those challenges.

The Lancaster New Era had the following headline today: “No more Coldwell Homesale”.  This is true in the sense that our name has changed.

What has NOT changed is the local company ownership, management team, agents, staff and our Core Value of “We Help People Achieve Their Dreams”.  Also, our local market strength has not changed, and we still offer the most complete level of services available in the Southeast Region of Pennsylvania.

Our office locations have not changed.  I still work from the Lancaster office on North Pointe Boulevard, near the Eden Resort and the Outback Steak House, and my telephone numbers have not changed.

With the announcement our company is making about our affiliation and name change, we are also highlighting our marketing campaign “Now is a good time to buy, ask me why!”   Fortunately in our Southeastern Pennsylvania area we have a diversity of economic activity that insulates us from the wider market swings that are being reported in the national news in other areas.  We have not seen the same reduction in property values that some areas of the United States have seen.  There are still homes selling in Lancaster County.  Interest rates for home mortgages are near their historical lows for the past 30 years.

With all of that said, please contact me if you know of someone thinking of moving, or if I can be helpful with your real estate needs.Thanks,

Merle

J. Merle Sollenberger GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®, CRESC

Prudential Homesale Services Group

Office 717-560-9100, Direct 717-286-9803, Mobile 717-371-9330

Our website: www.msollenberger.com

We see continued strengthening in the local real estate market in the last month.  The numbers from my March 6, 2008 search in the Lancaster County MLS indicate the following:

                        Active Listings     Under-Agreement Listings       Ratio

March 6, 2008             2,403                   745                           31.00%

February 2, 2008         2,340                   576                           24.62%

January 5, 2008           2,273                   484                           21.29%

December 7, 2007       2,509                   606                           24.15%

November 7, 2007      2,594                   709                           27.33%

October, 5, 2007         2,590                   745                           28.76%

From February 1, 2008 through February 29, 2008 my search in the MLS indicates 927 homes went Under-Agreement.  During the same period a year ago there were 1,045 homes that went UA.  That’s only an 11.29% reduction in a market activity, where national news is reporting areas that declined 40% in market values.  Market activity is not the same as market values, but with market activity being only 11.29% less, we are able to enjoy much more stability than many areas of the country and are not seeing the large value declines of other areas.

Activity with buyers I am working with has been good.  In the last month, three buyers I am working with have each come to an agreement with sellers for the purchase of a home.  Of those people selling, one is an investor selling a vacant rental property.  Another is a couple looking to buy a new home.  And the third is a single person moving because of the desire to live in a different community.

The Fed continues to express willingness to reduce rates, and yet it is watching for inflation because of the higher prices showing up on consumer products due to higher fuel prices.  The bond market takes all the information in and processes it to arrive at bond pricing, which impacts consumers borrowing cost (Mortgage Interest Rates).  Interest rates have moved around recently, but are still low by historical standards.  Recently an 84 year old client mentioned that when they bought their home in 1949 they paid interest at a rate of 7%.  We are still below that rate.  In the last 30 years, rates have not been much lower than they are now.

As I mentioned last month, buying now can enable you to take advantage of the lower rates and enjoy the benefits of that throughout the time you are paying on the mortgage, saving you many hard-earned dollars.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

717-560-9100     www.msollenberger.com        msollenberger@topproducer.com

We see a strengthening in the local real estate market in the last month.  The ratio between Under- Agreement Listings and Active Listings went from 21.29% on January 5, 2008 to 24.62% on February 2, 2008. 

The numbers from my February 2, 2008 search in the Lancaster County MLS indicate the following:

                        Active Listings  Under-Agreement Listings                    Ratio

February 2, 2008         2,340               576                                          24.62%

January 5, 2008           2,273               484                                          21.29%

December 7, 2007       2,509               606                                          24.15%

November 7, 2007      2,594               709                                          27.33%

October, 5, 2007         2,590               745                                          28.76%

Also, from January 1, 2008 thru January 31, 2008 my search in the MLS indicates 874 homes went UA.  During the same period a year ago there were 1,069 homes that went UA, and the prior year we saw 976 go UA.  I believe the UA/A ratio is a leading indicator of home sales, and that we may have seen the bottom in January for that ratio, which may point to lower numbers of homes settled in February and March.  However, with the February ratio improving, it may point to increased numbers of settlements in April, May and later.

In the February issue of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, it was reported that home sales decreased 33.4% from homes sold in January of 2007.  Considering the typical two-month lead time from going under-agreement to settlement, this is consistent with my records which indicate a UA/A ration for November 7, 2007 of 27.33%, and the November 6, 2006 of 35.80%.

With the ratio’s improving during the period from January 2007 through April 2007 as follows:

January 2007               33.22%

February 2007             47.33%

March 2007                 50.76%

April 2007                   50.33%  I think we can reasonably anticipate strengthening in the market very soon.

The Fed has reduced some key interest rates recently, and we are still enjoying mortgage rates that are near the historical lows of the last 30 years.  Buying now can enable you to take advantage of the lower rates and enjoy the benefits of that throughout the time you are paying on the mortgage, saving you many hard-earned dollars.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

717-560-9100     www.msollenberger.com        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Happy New Year!

Lancaster County, PA has a diversity of economic activity that insulates us from the wider market swings that occur in some other areas.  We have agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and great transportation access to larger metropolitan areas like Philadelphia, New York, Washington DC, and Baltimore.  There also is a very high quality of life to be enjoyed here.

The numbers for January from my search in the Lancaster County MLS indicate the following:

As of January 8, 2008 Active listings totaled 2,273 in the MLS for Lancaster County (down slightly from 2,590 in December), Under Agreement listings totaled 484 (down from 606 in December), resulting in a ratio of 21.29%. (vs. November ’07 ratio of 27.33% and December ’07 ratio of 24.15%)  Historically the pattern we see here is repeated each year, so it is a normal pattern.  I expect to see increased activity in the early part of 2008.

In the past week the number of calls I have received related to real estate questions has increased significantly, indicating that people are thinking of moving, and are taking steps to see it happen.

As I mentioned last month, mortgage rates have not increased significantly.  It is a great time for buyers to be purchasing houses.  That makes it a good time for sellers to be selling homes. The following chart from Tom Kowalchik, our HomeSale Mortgage representative, illustrates the level of interest rates since 1975.

As you can see, we are enjoying rates that are near the historical lows of the time period.  Buying now can enable you to take advantage of the lower rates and enjoy the benefits of that throughout the time you are paying on the mortgage, saving you many hard-earned dollars.

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

Homes are still selling in Lancaster County, PA.  This morning I searched in the Lancaster County MLS and learned the following:

Nov 1 through 30      # Under Agreement                # Settled

2007                            334  -26.1% from 2006      398      -16.0% from 2006 

2006                            452                              474

2005                            420                              505

2004                            428                              519

2000                            375                              389

As of December 7, 2007 Active listings totaled 2,509 in the MLS for Lancaster County (down slightly from 2,594 in November), Under Agreement listings totaled 606 (down from 709 in November), resulting in a ratio of 24.15%. (vs. November ratio of 27.33%) 

A verbal report from Las Vegas, NV indicates they have 1,500,000 people and 24,000 properties for sale.  In
Lancaster we have nearly 500,000 and 2,500 listings.  We have a much more normal level of strength in our local market.

We are still seeing the stock market have sizable fluctuations almost daily.  This is still largely because of the mortgage market problems we began hearing about in the spring.

Mortgage rates have not increased significantly.  In fact they have been down recently.  At a recent meeting someone mentioned that interest rates were at a 2 1/2 year low.  Lenders are still making loans.  They are requiring borrowers to be better qualified, but interest rates have not spiked up.

It is a great time for buyers.  Taking advantage of the low interest rates will be beneficial for a buyer for many years.  That, combined with the lower competition with other buyers in bidding on houses, offers a much more balanced environment than we saw around the spring of 2004.

Someone purchasing a house with a mortgage of $200,000 at an interest rate of 6% for 30 years will have a principal and interest payment of $1,199.10.  If their rate is 7% the monthly payment will increase $131.50, which over 30 years adds $47,341.42 to the cost of home ownership.

Prepared by:

J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

As we gather with our family today to observe Thanksgiving, we have challenges but much to be thankful for.  I am thankful for the many blessings God has given us.

Some of what I am thankful for is:

God, Jesus and the salvation they have for us,

My wife Sue, and sons Michael and Matthew,

Our parents, sisters and brothers, and their families,

The many clients and associates I have enjoyed interacting with in the real estate business,

The local Lancaster community, with the many people who live out the word “community” in so many ways,

The many freedoms and opportunities we experience in America.

There are many challenges going on in our world such as economic challenges, military action, cyclone losses, terrorism, global warming, fuel prices, health issues, and traffic congestion.

With this holiday I invite you to pause, consider what it is that you are blessed with, and express your thankfulness to others.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving!  I wish for you safe travels today as you come and go, and a quality time with those you are with.

Sincerely,

Merle

J. Merle Sollenberger

This past couple weeks has seen the stock market fluctuate noticeably almost daily.  According to the Sunday News Market Wrap For the week ending November 9, 2007 the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 13,042.74, which is down 552.36 for the week, and below the high of 14,198.10 we saw earlier this year.  This is largely because of the mortgage market problems we began hearing about in the spring.

However, lenders are still making loans.  They are requiring borrowers to be better qualified, but interest rates have not spiked up.  Homes are still selling in Lancaster County.  Overall, home sellers do not enjoy the same market demand they did two, three or four years ago.  Buyers are now able to make decisions in a more relaxed fashion, and not worry as much about having to compete with other offers.  Sellers must price their homes competitively in the market, or buyers will simply let the seller keep the house.  Some builders are offering significant incentives to sell their homes.

As of November 7, 2007 Active listings totaled 2,594 in the MLS for Lancaster County (up from 2,590 in October), Under Agreement listings totaled 709 (down from 745 in October), resulting in a ratio of 27.33%.  (709 divided by 2,594)

Here are some past ratio’s for perspective:

  44.61% in July 2007

  32.90% in September 2007

  36.15% in November 2006

129.8% in June of 2004

  26.84% in October 2000.

  Considering this information, after a couple years of incredible activity, we are back to a more normal market.

The November issue of House Calls, a publication of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors, indicated that the number of sold homes that settled in October 2007 was 400, a 24.4% decrease from the 529 that settled in October 2006.  The number of new listings increased 2.8% from 721 in October 2006 to 741 in October 2007.  The average sale price also increased from $186,614 in October 2006 to $195,908 in October 2007, a 5.0% increase.

Mortgage rates have not increased significantly.  In fact House Calls reports that fixed rate mortgages are slightly lower than a year ago, but adjustable rates are up slightly.

Prepared by:

J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group

            As of October 5, 2007 Active listings totaled 2,590 in the MLS for Lancaster County (up from 2,459 in September), Under Agreement listings totaled 745 (down from 809 in September), resulting in a ratio of 28.76%.  The ratio was 44.61% in July 2007, 41.02% in August 2007, and 32.90% in September 2007, a decrease in activity.  In September 2006 the ratio was 44.74%, in June of 2004 it was as high as 129.8%.  On October 3 of 2000 the ratio was 26.84%.  Considering this information, we are back to a normal market.

The September issue of House Calls, a publication of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors, indicated that the number of homes that settled in August 2007 was 583, a 4.7% decrease from the 612 that settled in August 2006.  The number of new listings increased 6.9% from 600 in August 2006 to 831 in August 2007.  The average sale price also increased from $191,755 to $204,950, setting a new record.

Mortgage rates have not increased significantly.  In fact House Calls reports that fixed rate mortgages are slightly lower than a year ago, but adjustable rates are up slightly.

Tuesday October 8, the stock market closed at a new high, reflecting the perspective of investors on Wall Street.  The Fed reduced some key interest rates recently, which sparked buying in the stock market.  I hear of concerns about inflation, and can see that as a viable possibility.  That would tend to treat property owners well if they purchase good properties and maintain them appropriately.  All of the doom and gloom we hear on the news does not accurately reflect the market in the Lancaster County area.

My belief is that in the current market buyers can possibly find some opportunities that were not there three years ago.  There are sellers who need to sell, regardless of the market.  For sellers there are buyers needing to buy because of a job change, family change, or some other event in their life that causes them to make the choice to move.  It may take a little longer to sell than before, and sellers may not profit as much from the market value increases as they did before.  However, homes are not in the same investment category as stocks and bonds are, and purchase and sale decisions are based on more than just return on investment.

Prepared by:

J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker,

Licensed in Pennsylvania

Coldwell Banker HomeSale Services Group